It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
