Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
