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At first, the former US president seemed to embrace a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "significant consequences" last August in case Russia's president continued hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was developed by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would in practice reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the plan actually compromise that same independence. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate past, the former president persists to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. But, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in place the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been unable to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a essential obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital in case he later opt to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal places no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, the proposal declares: "Every Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should the international community trust this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not